Fight or Flight; Left or Right

The morning air was so thick you could see it, but at least the light wind meant a nice steady Friday ride today. The topic of conversation, of course, always comes back the Hurricane of the Week, Gustav. With a storm track that keeps shifting with each 6-hour update, it's hard to know whether to flee to the relative safety of the Interstate, or dig in and fight it out. I have to admit, my natural tendency is the latter. I've really noticed that some of the folks whose lives were severely disrupted by Katrina are especially nervous about this hurricane. The track keeps shifting, left to right, but always the city remains in the dreaded "cone of uncertainty," which of course means that it's practically certain that we'll get some significant weather. The last two runs of the prediction models have been leaning toward landfall west of the city. This is certainly better than a direct hit, but it is also a whole lot worse than a track that takes it to the east. The last thing we want around here is the strong storm surge and high tides that come along with the northeast quadrant of a hurricane.

So we wait and hope for the best. As unlikely as another major flood is, it is impossible to escape the recent reality of Katrina. The new floodgates on the city's outfall canals are untested in a real hurricane, and the faith we once had in the floodwalls and levees, not to mention the police department, state government, and federal government, is long gone. On the plus side, the early and energetic preparations by city, state and federal officials has been impressive (and quite unprecedented). There have been constant announcements urging residents who need help or transportation to call the special 311 phone number to make arrangements.

So tomorrow I think I'll ride out to the Giro Ride, even though I know that some people have already fled. We already have a reservation up in Jackson LA where The Wife will need to be some time on Sunday if things look bad. The problem, however, is that Jackson is likely to get hammered pretty well if this storm stays its current course. The Dad has already gone to the relative safety of Fort Walton Beach, FL. The Mom, her dog, our cat, etc. will be going with us to Jackson if necessary. It's looking like decision time will come tomorrow night. By Sunday morning I'm sure the Mayor will call for a mandatory evacuation unless the forecast improves dramatically. As I recall, we evacuated for Katrina on a Sunday morning too.